I found myself in a deep state of thought when wearing my Nivada Grenchen Antarctic Spider recently. The Antarctic Spider is without a doubt a watch with some serious history. The triangulation/spider dial wasn’t on the first watch to go down into the Antarctic, but it is one of the rarer configurations of an already desirable watch.
I don’t know how famous my story is, (I sure hope it isn’t) but I’ll retell a condensed version for those who haven’t heard it yet. I bought this watch non-running and in a state of disrepair at my local pawn shop for very little money, just over 5 USD. I serviced it and replaced the crystal. I serviced it myself, so that only costed me seven hours of my time and some trauma after I lost the setting lever screw. My watchmaker has tins full of old ETA automatics from this era and the setting lever screw is interchangeable between most of them. He was kind enough to donate two of them to my cause. I had the crystal replaced by him for 8 USD equivalent. So, I’m about 13 USD in for a very rare watch that many people would be happy to own.
I got a good deal; I will freely admit that this was a happening of luck and/or good karma, I had no idea how much an Antarctic Spider was worth when buying it. Hell, I thought that I just had a regular Antarctic. In other words, this watch, which is of at least some historical importance, was dropped into my hands. I just had to service it and show it some love. I believe this was the working of God; the probability of such a watch being at such a place at such a time is pitifully low.
So why me? Whether you believe that it was higher power or simple chance that put this watch in my hands, what makes me “the chosen one?” I am a passionate collector and I believe I have respectable knowledge within my niche, especially considering that I’ve only been in the game for about a year. I am a person who wears this watch out and about; I don’t confine it to a safe. Maybe it’s some sort of impostor syndrome, where I doubt myself in owning such an important watch that I could never have afforded at my age. Maybe the importance and collectability of this watch has just been the victim of some internet hyperbole and I don’t have anything that’s too special in the first place.
The second half of this dilemma is the feeling that no one is good enough to carry the torch. If I were to sell it, I wouldn’t feel comfortable selling it to the wrong person, i.e. someone who never wears it or someone who doesn’t love it.
I’m a collector who got a nice watch virtually for free who is nervous about owning it and selling it simultaneously. It’s not something obviously expensive and I love walking around with it surrounded by people who don’t know its true value. I despise flexing, but there is a certain feeling of power I get from knowing that my knowledge and ability to service a watch got me a watch that is worth about as much as a few months working minimum wage over here. With that also comes guilt; is it considerate to wear this as a high-schooler when there are people (even if they don’t know what this watch is worth) who could really use the money?
Maybe it’s an issue of love. Watches are like people, some days you wake up madly in love with someone, but without reciprocation, those feelings eventually die down. I wonder if I’m simply going through a rough patch in this relationship and my attitude will later change. What makes someone a good heir to pieces of history; is protecting and appreciating these items enough?
The Escapement Room 
Don’t sell it. Keep it, wear it, treasure it.
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I don’t think I would ever be able to part with it. It costs me nothing to keep it.
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Yes, you are good enough to carry the torch! But, with regard to selling the Antarctic Spider, here’s one way by which to think about the potential proceeds: 1) Let’s say you sell the watch for $1,000. 2) If you put that money into the S&P500, it will double in “inflation-adjusted” terms every 10 years. 3) Let’s say you’re 18 now, and you take a look at your brokerage statement 30 years from now. At age 48, you’ll have $8,000 (in “real” 2024 USD) to play with. 4) But, that’s not all. That $8,000 in 2024 USD will be worth almost infinitely more in the year 2054 than $1,000 in 2024 will be worth today. Why? Because there will incredible new goods and services that we could never have dreamed of 30 years from now, that you can only consume in the future.
“Inflation-adjusted” dollars is something you have to do in order to calculate “real” GDP growth, etc., etc. But, it’s anything but “real.” “Real” GDP is actually fake GDP. We’re trying to say, “Oh, well, a candy bar cost $0.25 forty years ago, but due to inflation, candy bars cost $1 now. So, once we adjust for inflation, the $1k you invest today, will be worth $8k in ‘real’ terms.”
But, what that inflation-adjustment doesn’t take into account is new technology and innovation. For example, I’m told that $1 in 1980 has the same buying power as ~$4 in 2024. Because of inflation, candy bars are more expensive today. But, this fails to take into account the single most important thing in the universe – we have new things that didn’t even exist back in 1980! Sure, the candy bar used to cost $0.25, but uh, stuff like THE INTERNET, iPhones, effective cancer therapies, statins, etc., etc., etc., etc. didn’t even exist back then! You could be the richest person in the world, and even if you tried to pay someone $10B, nobody could sell you a PS5.
So, with all that long-winded prattling, I would say, “Sell it. Put that $1k into the S&P500. Forget that it even exists. Open your statement 30 years from now, and then, at that time, go ahead and take the $8k and buy yourself a space-time continuum warp drive, or whatever the heck amazing device is available at that time that we couldn’t even conceive of today.”
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You’ve put it excellently! I’ve always been struggling to weigh up the value of a watch to me as a collector to its monetary value. I still think I’m going to keep it. I doubt it will ever become an 8000 USD watch, but my main reason for keeping it is that I want to be in a position where 1000 USD isn’t my entire net worth. At my current age, that’s a lot of money, but what if I start working and invest for the sake of argument 2500 USD ten years later. I lose out on ten years’ worth of interest, but I will earn more interest as the remaining years go by. I salute you for doing the maths, I’m probably not smart enough to do real world financial maths problems, but I wonder how the two will compare.
The other half of the problem is the value of 8000 USD to me at age 48. That can buy me a decent used motorcycle or a nice watch, but will that be worth the loss of my Antarctic Spider?
In other words, I think I’ve fallen in love. That’s what love does. The most sensible thing is to invest the money, but my brain will find ways out of it. It’s like dating a borderline psycho goth girl; it’ll hurt me at best, but I know I wouldn’t say no.
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